This policy brief, based on SEI Working Paper WP-US-1106, summarises the paper’s analysis of the implications of proposed policies that would allow greenhouse gas offset credits to be counted toward the emission reduction pledges of both the developing countries that generate them, and the developed countries that buy them.

International offsets could play a major role in fulfilling developed countries’ emission reduction pledges under the Cancún Agreements, but there is great uncertainty about how they will be treated in future climate agreements.

The authors quantify the implications of double-counting of international offsets by building a spreadsheet model to analyze how potential offset supply and demand balances may evolve. They find that double-counting could effectively reduce the ambition of current pledges by up to 1.6 billion tonnes CO₂e in 2020.

They close by describing several possible ways to address the risks of offset double-counting.

Download the policy brief (PDF, 1.81MB)