Author(s): Kartha, S., and P. Erickson
In: SEI Working Paper No. 2011-06
Type: Working paper
Link to SEI author(s):
This report, based on an analysis conducted for Oxfam International, examines four recent detailed studies of countries’ mitigation pledges under the Cancun Agreements, for the purpose of comparing developed (Annex 1) country pledges to developing (non-Annex 1) country pledges.
Comparison of Annex 1 and non-Annex 1 pledges under the Cancún Agreements
It finds that there is broad agreement that developing country pledges amount to more mitigation than developed country pledges, despite the diversity of assumptions and methodologies employed in the studies and the substantial differences in their quantification of the pledges.
The studies further note that the mitigation pledged globally is consistent with a global temperature rise of greater than 2°C – and possibly as much as 5°C. Avoiding this much warming would require developed countries to raise their pledges to the levels required by science and equity, and fulfill those ambitions through actual mitigation.
While this report concludes that developed country pledges are not high enough, it does not conversely imply that developing country pledges are too high. If the appropriate international institutions of technological cooperation and financial support were put in place, developing countries could also fulfill higher levels of ambition, consistent with keeping warming below 2°C or 1.5°C.
Download the paper (PDF, 2.3mb)
Note: This paper was originally published in June 2011 as SEI-US Working Paper WP-US-1107. For a summary of the key findings, download this policy brief.
About SEI Working Papers:
The SEI working paper series aims to expand and accelerate the availability of our research, stimulate discussion, and elicit feedback. SEI working papers are work in progress and typically contain preliminary research, analysis, findings, and recommendations.
Many SEI working papers are drafts that will be subsequently revised for a refereed journal or book. Other papers share timely and innovative knowledge that we consider valuable and policy-relevant, but which may not be intended for later publication.