Scenarios exploring long-term social and environmental sustainability must consider the distribution of incomes, but the theoretical basis for creating scenarios of within-country income distributions is weak.
However, a recent social and political theory, developed by Chakravorty, offers a conceptual model that can be used to create compelling scenario narratives for within-country income distributions in a wide range of political and regulatory regimes.
This paper argues that by combining this qualitative theory with a quantitative political theory (Selectorate theory), it is possible to explain quantitative changes in income distributions. We test the model against available data and apply it to some stylized global scenarios under different types of regimes.
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