China – U.S. relations and domestic politics on the road to Copenhagen 1: Making virtue of necessity

Expectations for reaching a grand climate deal at Copenhagen are dwindling and a cloud of pessimism seems to be settling in. Copenhagen has been viewed as a “historic moment” and the “ultimate test of global cooperation” (Gordon Brown) but given the “glacial speed” of negotiation (Ban Ki‑moon), many are understandably worried about the prospects of failure. EU leaders and political commentators are already expressing disappointment, frustration and concern with the lack of progress on the path to Copenhagen.

While all 192 countries are important, the U.S., the EU, and China are undoubtedly the key players. In the climate negotiation game, they each play different roles.

The roles of these key players have been dynamic and constantly reshaped by the demands of their respective domestic politics and through their interactions on the global stage. Notably, there have been concerns about EU’s leadership, in part due to the increased spotlight on the U.S. and China that followed on the wave of climate diplomacy when the Obama administration took office. The capacity of the EU to broker differences between the two parties, or between the broader North-South divide has also been questioned.

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Related publications:
China – U.S. relations and domestic politics on the road to Copenhagen 2: Convergence and Contingencies (pdf)

China – U.S. relations and domestic politics on the road to Copenhagen 3: The Finale (pdf)