Current vulnerability in the Monte Alén–Monts de Cristal landscape, Equatorial Guinea

Between 2011 and 2012, a regional baseline assessment to analyse vulnerability was conducted in five landscapes of the Congo Basin as part of the ‘Climate Change and Forests in the Congo Basin: Synergies between Adaptation and Mitigation (COBAM)’ project.

The Monte Alén–Monts de Cristal landscape covers a total of 26 747 km2 across Gabon and Equatorial Guinea. The landscape comprises national parks, such as Monte Alén National Park and Al-tos de Nsork National Park, forest management units, national forests and traditional community land and villages. Despite the presence of three national parks and one national reserve, the economy and land use are dominated by industrial logging concessions, which account for 65% of the available land. However, since the discovery of large oil reserves in 1996, the income from oil has greatly exceeded that from timber.

The vulnerability assessment focused on current vulnerability, which includes an analysis of both past trends and present conditions. In particular, the analysis considers the social aspects of vulnerability, understanding it as processes rooted in the actions of human actors and their interactions with the natural resource base on which they depend. Different dimensions of vulnerability framed the assessment, which largely applied a participatory approach.

The analysis shows that different climate-related disturbances have different effects on different groups, natural resources and activities. The availability of labour in a household is an important vulnerability factor. A family or household without enough available labour cannot perform certain farming activities on time and thus is more vulnerable to changes in the onset of seasons and may have fewer opportunities for livelihood diversification. In particular, female-headed households (e.g. widows) or households without active young people because of urban migration seem to be the most vulnerable social groups in the villages. Women are responsible for most agricultural tasks, whereas men predominantly engage in forest-related activities such as hunting.

Agriculture is the activity that is most exposed and affected by disturbances such as increased temperatures and changes in the seasons. Forest resources also are vulnerable, although to a lesser extent; in some cases, non-timber forest products (NTFPs) have benefited from changes in weather patterns. Villagers have noticed that they are no longer able to predict wet and dry periods and thus follow the ‘traditional’ production calendar for their activities. Increased climate variability and unpredictability of rainfall patterns have caused reductions in agricultural production, thus negatively affecting food security and the local economy.

Lessons from past ecological and social dynamics serve as the basis for building adaptive capacity to climate variability. However, adaptation to future climate change requires building the capacity to adapt to new and unprecedented situations and events. Pilot activities, such as those supported by the COBAM project, could lay the foundations for longer-term solutions, as long as there is systematic learning that enables reflection and refinement along the way. This will require mechanisms to support the learning process and facilitate experimenting, monitoring and improving over time.

The insights generated by the vulnerability baseline assessment will be combined with more in-depth research to explore future vulnerability and identify synergies between mitigation and adaptation in the project sites. Results from further analyses and evaluation of future strategies will generate recommendations to inform decision-making and planning at local and national levels across countries in the Congo Basin.

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